Saturday, January 12, 2008

Rethinking the Winners and Losers

Quick Quiz: Who won the New Hampshire Democratic primary? The little known correct answer is, "It depends". It has been widely reported that Hillary scored a stunning 3% victory over Barack Obama (after squandering a 10 point lead in the final month). That is a fact; however, how many delegates did each candidate earn towards the nomination of the party? The answer is that Clinton won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level), and Obama won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level). Of New Hampshire's superdelegates, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama. There are still 3 uncommitted superdelegates. Therefore, if we are judging NH electoral success on delegate counts, Obama wins by a nose. The battle will rage forward for a commitment from the remaining three superdelegates in play. Fascinating stuff. (Side note - Edwards won 4 delegates)

What was worse for Obama on primary night - learning that the pollsters overestimated his vote count, or that Edwards would forge ahead with his candidacy all the way to Denver? I think it's the latter. My belief is that Edwards loyalists would shift allegiance to Obama in large numbers compared to those who might switch to Clinton. Edwards will remain a spoiler in the race for Obama, practically assuring Hillary of the nomination. He is the "Ross Perot" of 2008. Once again, a Clinton wins without 50% of the vote.

Fred Heads left early for South Carolina apparently - if there were any. According to www.nh2008.blogspot.com, GOP write-ins defeated Fred Thompson by 1,219 votes (3,987 to 2,768). His performance in the GOP SC debate the other night was by far his most energetic of the campaign. He should beat the write-in options in SC handily.

Where have you gone, Joe Biden? The Senator from Delaware (Small Wonder) withdrew after a poor showing in Iowa. He still managed to garner more votes than active Democratic candidate, Mike Gravel. The count was Biden 612 - Gravel 396. Perhaps Gravel's popularity will rise if he drops out.

Finally, the biggest loser - Al Gore. The Draft Gore movement has officially ended, and it's only January. Rumor is Gore is laughing all the way to Cannes.

JS

Friday, January 11, 2008

The Crying Game

I like to flatter myself that I have a special perspective on the New Hampshire primary results. I was on the ground, you know. I mixed with the people. I felt the citizen vibe. Consequently, not only is my opinion on the results relevant, it is also indisputably accurate. I have no hard evidence, mind you - but I was there. HA!

In the months leading up to the primary, Hillary held a 10 point lead in most polls, and that lead had remained relatively stable for some time. During our visit, my feeling after seeing Hillary was that she was playing defense way too early in the contest. She was distant from the NH voters, protected by the Secret Service and the air of inevitability. The last thing she was going to do was put herself out there, appear vulnerable in any way. In New Hampshire, if they don't know you, they won't vote for you. Regardless of your political persuasion, I think you'd agree she's a hard person to get to know.

Is this why she faded in the polls? Yes, I think so. The Obama Phenomenon was palpable, and we didn't get the opportunity to see him. The people we met and discussed politics with all mentioned him. He was an American Idol in NH long before the press jumped on that bandwagon. He was real, she was not. He was new, she was recycled. He connected, she made appearances.

This doesn't explain why Hillary won, though. I'm getting to that.

The whimper? Please. I have never heard of a more sexist, degrading comment in my life than this: "Women in New Hampshire switched their vote to Hillary after seeing her cry." Is our accepted view of women in the public square so shallow that we believe that votes are won and lost based on feminine emotional empathy? I refuse to accept that explanation. First, it is demeaning to suggest. Second, the "cry" happened too close to the voting to sway votes. Third, the cry theory works from the premise that the polls were correct showing Obama's 13 point lead in the first place. Fourth, I have a higher regard for Americans than that - perhaps a misplaced regard (see "Two Terms for Bush"), but a regard nonetheless.

Racism? The idea has been floated that NH-ites were embarrassed to tell pollsters that they were against the black candidate; however, once hidden from public view in the booth, they could freely and anonymously express their latent racist tendencies. In the 21st century, such stupidity can't exist. I couldn't go on if I thought such stupidity was possible.

Here's my theory, supported by exactly zero exit polls. I call it the "Pacific Time Zone Theory". Back a few years, the news outlets used to announce presidential winners before the polls closed on the West Coast. Because the results were already determined, turnout was suppressed because people knew their votes were meaningless. This also allowed those voters to vote their conscious, or register a protest vote, knowing that it would not change the final election result. It was a safe vote to make. I believe that this happened in New Hampshire. The pollsters and pundits were so certain of Obama's impending 13 point victory that voters were equally convinced. Knowing that Obama would win, NH voters pulled the curtain behind them and thought, "Well, since Obama is going to win anyway, I'll vote for someone else to make it close." This follows from NH voters reputation for contrarian voting. They resented the election being decided in the papers before a vote was cast.

In sum, Obama was never ahead 13 points, but he was ahead in voter preference going into election day. The drumbeat of inevitability for an Obama victory worked against him. NH prefers the underdog, and the press remade Hillary as the underdog. The media convinced the voters that their vote couldn't change the outcome.

I look forward to a world without pre-election polling. It might even be a world where Joe Biden becomes President of the United States.

JS

Thursday, January 10, 2008

The Seeds We Plant Today...

Before the New Hampshire primary, Marra and I watched part of the GOP debate (before I marched her up to bed). Inspired by her old man, she grabbed some index cards and starting writing materials for this blog. Here it is, uncensored:

MARRA

In my opinion, Fred Thompson shouldn't be President. He's an actor, not a President! (Plus, he's kinda too old). But, then again, George Bush is an actor, too. He acts every day like he knows what he's doing. I was pretty surprised when he (Thompson) came in third for the Iowa caucus. The same place as Hillary, who I always thought was really popular. My mom says women are too emotional to be President. If there was a war, my mom said, Hillary would sit down and cry. I said no, YOU'RE too emotional to be President. Hillary has held up pretty good. Here is my opinion on all the candidates (well, the ones who have a chance anyway).

Barack Obama - So far, he's my fav. But maybe that's just cuz I've never heard anyone say bad stuff about him. I give him a 9 on a 1-10 scale.

Mitt Romney - One of my least favorites. He's kinda of mean. He disses Hillary a lot, and made a commercial that goes like this: "When Republicans start acting like Democrats, America loses." Meanie! How rude to Democrats. America lost when GB got elected. He should say "When Republicans start acting like George Bush, America loses." I give him a 0 out of 10.

John Edwards - He used to be my favorite but my mom made a pretty good point: HIs wife has CANCER and he's gone all the time trying to be President. Come on, John. Can you realize what your wife is going through? Plus, along with the other Democrats, he's pro-choice.

I know this isn't a hige issue, but when I was younger, I came up with this plan to change gas prices. I would buy a gas company, and lower all my prices. Sure, I'd be in debt for awhile, but I'd be so popular that I could pay it off soon. All other companies would lower prices to compete with me, and Hooray. All better. Now, I think I'll just become a hostess of Jeopardy instead. Or maybe be the 1st woman President hopefully. (Sorry, Hillary). But I think it would be pretty cool if Hillary became President since I have her picture and autograph. Even if her earrings don't usually match.

Marra

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

What is Prologue is Now Past

The results from the New Hampshire primary are in. Hillary Clinton is the victor on the Democratic side. John McCain wins on the Republican side. New Hampshire represented the end of the road for my dream of participating in the nominating process and sharing my passion for politics with my daughter. In the presidential race, however, this is only the beginning. If your local broadcaster tells you otherwise, I suggest you rise up and scream, "We're mad as hell, and we're not going to take it anymore!" The competition is far from over. The polls haven't opened yet in the remaining states.

Of course, I did predict Hillary and McCain as their respective party nominees months ago.

There is so much more I have to say - about Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Romney, McCain. All really gripping stuff. And I will get it down on the keyboard soon. Marra has some written thoughts I will publish in the blog soon, too. But this journey was really all about me and Marra. We both won the New Hampshire primary.

JS

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Lightning Round

Did you catch the Des Moines Register GOP debate yesterday? Didn't think so. I only survived the first hour, but here's a quick "lightning round" recap:

Fred Thompson: He's acting angry now. At least he's showing signs of being interested in the whole enterprise.

Mitt Romney: He reiterated that he is in favor of things being "strong". The "Weak" lobby must be devastated. This guy really takes generalities to a whole new level. If he ran against Hillary, I can just hear the debate:

Moderator: How would you fix Social Security for future generations?

Hillary: I believe this is an important issue, no question. I promise as your President to take a serious look at this issue. I think it is that important.

Mitt: I believe that a strong military and strong families is how you solve that crisis. And that's what I'll bring to this issue - strength.

American Public: Is Mike Bloomberg still available?

Ron Paul: In deference to his most rabid independent fundraisers, every issue for him is now related to the currency of the United States, and our need to return to the gold standard. His college supporters everywhere have to be scratching their heads, saying, "I wonder if it's too late to switch our support to that short Democrat who married the tall redhead..."

Tom Tancredo: I had the odd experience last night of realizing that he represents Colorado. I am pretty sure that I have referred to him in past entries as being from California. Is it possible that Tancredo is so obscure, that even someone like myself who is immersed in the process doesn't know what state he represents??? I think hell might be an endless lunch date with this guy. I'll let you know...

Alan Keyes: Ah, bet you didn't know he was running, did you? Keyes was selected as the GOP's sacrificial lamb in 2004 against the juggernaut that was Barack Obama in Illinois. Of course, Keyes was listed as being from Maryland. Seems he goes where the cameras are, regardless of state affiliation. He was quite the angry candidate last night, too, railing against the Republican machine at each opportunity instead of answering any questions. He reminded me of the fictitious news commentator, Marvin Disgruntled, who ended every commentary with his signature line, "I'm Marvin Disgruntled, and you can all go to hell."

Duncan Hunter: He received no questions on immigration, yet still managed to get in a line about his plans to finish the giant wall across our southern border. I am sure that in his view, that would prevent any more Mexicans coming into our country and attacking us again, like they did on September 11th.

John McCain: Does he have enough time left to make his move against such a weak field? The clock is ticking.

Rudy Giuliani: Low taxes will cure cancer. I especially liked his line that every great innovation in our country's history occurred when government got out of the way, and was not involved. Perhaps he didn't consider the space program to be a government program And the Internet? Government program. Has he ever heard of the military-industrial complex?

Mike Huckabee: On message, once again. The guy is smooth, perhaps the smoothest politician in the entire 6,000 year history of the planet.

21 more days til caucus.

JS

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Potpourri

It's been 7 weeks since we left New Hampshire, and I've spent the majority of that time writing about our adventures while there. Time has not stopped, however, and much has happened in the campaigns during my hiatus from current events. I can't recapture all of it, but here's some catch up stuff:

Switching Parties: I have a new question for Giuliani: Is Joe Torre a flip-flopper?

Finding his O Spot: If Letterman did the introductions at an Obama event now, would he update his infamous joke from the Oscars several years back - "Oprah, Obama. Obama, Oprah."

Perhaps other candidates should seek out celebrity endorsements. Obama has Oprah, Huckabee has Chuck Norris. I'd love to see Phil Donahue stump with his body double, Chris Dodd. Fred Thompson might want to consider signing on with that talk show guy who talks to dead people. Maybe he'll listen to Fred.

Are You Talking to Me?: During the last Democratic debate, Hillary was speaking about inspiration on the campaign trail, and she mentioned the thrill of seeing "fathers who had driven hundreds of miles with their daughters to see me". Cherie is convinced that Hillary was referring to me and Marra. Of course she was. We had a sign.

The Plant People: Marra and I learned why Hillary didn't call o us during the 2 events we attended. Seems her campaign was caught in Iowa of planting people in the audience with specific questions. Don't we already have a President that does this stuff? Just because she plants Democrats to ask questions doesn't make it right.

Biden His Time: I have a suggestion for the Biden camp. Run an ad in Iowa and New Hampshire with quick cuts from the last Democratic debate. Everyone on that stage at one point or another said, "I agree with Joe", or "Senator Biden is right on this point", or "Sen. Biden has been a leader on this issue". He seems to be the consensus choice of every candidate running. He should capitalize on that. Could be a cool ad. "Instead of voting for someone who agrees with Joe, let's cut out the middle man. Vote for Joe."

I fear he won't survive past January 6th.

Richardson Open Veep Exploratory Committee: Why can't he just admit that he wants to be Hillary's running mate? It would free up some time during the debates for other candidates to speak.

Real Time Reality Check: Watching Bill Maher on Real Time after the trip, I heard him fillet Giuliani for telling a kid that he would protect us from alien invasion. Funny take, but we were in the room in Exeter, NH when that happened. Maher took the experience completely out of context. It was a harmless joke this time, but I wonder how often that happens every day during the 24 hour news cycle.

Hostage Crisis: If Hillary's campaign office in Rochester, NH had come under siege during Oprah's tour with Obama, how long would it take before someone would cry, "Conspiracy!" The woman inspires divisiveness. Will she ever be able to adequately overcome that?

Immigration Nation: The demagoguery on the GOP side is unrelenting. Romney and Giuliani both used to have balanced and reasonable points of view on the issue, and both have abandoned those positions in search of right wing support in the primaries. When will someone say that most illegal immigration is caused by people coming here legally, but overstaying their visa periods? It is not all landscapers and painters with dark skin and accents.

C-SPAN 2: Enough with these "Book TV" programs. Let's see more candidates shaking hands of regular folks for hours on end. Riveting stuff like that.

JS

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Marra's Version (!!!)

Before we left for New Hampshire, I wrote a note to all of Marra's teachers, explaining why she would be absent for up to 4 days of school. In each note, I encouraged the teachers to assign a project to Marra based on her experiences chasing candidates. Fortunately, one of her teachers took me up on the offer, and asked Marra to write a one-page summary of the trip. Marra was thrilled (insert sarcasm here).

She refused to write about the trip while we were there, insisting that the trip had to be completed before she could put pen to paper. I insisted that she entertain herself on the 10 hour drive home to Virginia by getting it done. Here below is the first draft, three hand written pages plus recap. Be forewarned, she loves the exclamation point - it's her favorite piece of punctuation:

"On Friday, October 12th, my Dad and I left for Manchester, New Hampshire. We got to see six candidates for the 2008 election! We saw John McCain, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Huckabee, John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton. We also visited the headquarters of Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and Chris Dodd.

Let me start at the beginning. First thing, we went to a global warming conference. We had a huge lunch and listened to a guy make a speech about global warming. Finally, we got to hear three candidates talk. I didn't know that there was so much to know about global warming, and I had never even heard about nuclear power plants!

Nuclear power plants are a form of energy that takes atoms and splits them to cause a mini-bomb. This is cleaner, but the plant lets off a very dangerous waste that can cause cancer. Right now, they just put it in a barrel and either bury it or throw it in the ocean. You can see why that can cause a terrible accident.

After the global warming conference, we went to the Huckabee house party. House parties are my favorite event. You go to somebody's house (in this case because of the global warming theme, it was a green house. A green house is a house that uses solar power. Plus the floor was made of bamboo and the carpet was recycled!) and you can walk around and maybe talk to the candidate personally. (I met Mike Huckabee and got a picture with him!) Then he/she will give a short speech and answer questions. Plus, there's food!

We went to an Edwards event after the house party. John Edwards is my favorite candidate. I like all his ideas the best. This event was a town hall meeting. He gave a speech and answered a few questions. I was so glad to go to bed that night. I was sooooo tired!

The next day, we went to a house party for Edwards. Immediately after, we went to Young's restaurant where Rudy Giuliani was walking around, talking to people! My Dad and I were lucky to get a seat by the door, so we were the first people he met!

I felt like we were stalking Rudy Giuliani! After the restaurant, we saw him at a town hall meeting. I sat on the edge of the balcony so I could look down at him and not have to look over someone's head. He made a speech, then answered a few questions. After that, we just hung out at the hotel pool until we had to go to church.

On Monday, we visited all the candidates' headquarters in Manchester. Some of them were really cool, the Barack Obama's headquarters. The guy who showed us around, Garrett, was very thorough and let us sign the wall to show that we supported Obama. Others, like Rudy Giuliani's headquarters, had people who hardly talked to us. Overall though, most of the headquarters were really cool.

After the headquarters and eating lunch, we went back to the hotel to do homework. Yuck! Anyway, after I did about half of my homework, we went to one more headquarters, then to dinner.

Tuesday was a Hillary Clinton day. We went to her speech in the morning, and a town hall meeting in the afternoon. I waved around a sign I'd made that said, "We drove 500 miles to see you, so CALL ON ME!". I hoped the sign would persuade Hillary to call on us for a question, but it didn't. We did get her to autograph the sign though! Plus, we got a couple of pictures with her!

Overall, it was a really great trip and I learned a lot. New Hampshire is also really beautiful, so I hope I can go back someday."

By Marra...and JS!!!!!